Archive for November, 2020
Thursday, November 26th, 2020
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 33.1% in the third quarter of 2020, according to the “second” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) . In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4%. The GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month that also showed an increase in real GDP of 33.1%. With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up.
- Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 25.5% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 32.6% in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 29.2% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 32.0% in the second quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 25.6% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 28.1% in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.3% in the third quarter, compared with a decrease of 1.4% in the previous quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.7%, compared with a decrease of 1.6% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5%, compared with a decrease of 0.8%.
- Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $495.3 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $208.9 billion in the second quarter. Profits from current production were impacted by provisions from the Paycheck Protection Program. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $24.5 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $26.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $431.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $145.9 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $39.6 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $89.5 billion. In the third quarter, receipts increased $97.5 billion, and payments increased $57.9 billion.
- Personal income decreased 0.7% in October, following a 0.7% increase in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income decreased 0.8% and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. Real disposable personal income decreased 0.8% in October, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. The personal consumption expenditures price index (headline index) and the core index both held steady in October. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.2% from October 2019, while the core index increased 1.4%. BEA stated: “The October estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments slowed as pandemic-related assistance programs continued to wind down. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.”
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased 1.3%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.2%. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October also increased 1.3%. Excluding transportation, shipments increased 2.0%. Excluding defense, shipments increased 1.1%. Year-to-date, new orders decreased 9.1% and shipments decreased 6.7% from the same period a year ago.
- The international trade deficit was $80.3 billion in October, up $0.9 billion from $79.4 billion in September, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports of goods for October were $126.0 billion, $3.4 billion more than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $206.3 billion, $4.4 billion more than September imports.
- Retail inventories for October were up 0.8% from September but were down 8.5% from October 2019.
- Wholesale inventories for October were up 0.9% from September but were up 2.7% from October 2019.
- Sales of new single-family houses in October 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999 thousand, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3% below the revised September rate of 1,002 thousand but is 41.5% above the October 2019 estimate of 706 thousand. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2020 was $330.6 thousand and the average sales price was $386.2 thousand. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 278 thousand. This represents a supply of 3.3 months at the current sales rate, compared with 5.5 months in October 2019.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates hold steady heading into the Thanksgiving Holiday. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.72% for the week ending November 25, unchanged from last week. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.68%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.28%, unchanged from last week. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.15%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 3.9% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 20, 2020.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 30 thousand to 778 thousand in the week ending November 21. The 4-week moving average was 748.5 thousand, an increase of 5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending November 14 was 6,071 thousand, a decrease of 299 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 6,615.25 thousand, a decrease of 438 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.1% for the week ending November 14, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 76.9 in November, from 81.8 in October. The Index was 96.8 in November of 2019. The Current Conditions Index increased from 85.9 in October to 87.0 in November, while The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 79.2 to 70.5.
- There were 60,641,673 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 1,426,394 deaths, and 38,882,736 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 11/26/2020, 12:30 EST). In the United States, there are 12,795,581 confirmed cases, 262,446 deaths, and 4,835,956 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
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Saturday, November 21st, 2020
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for October were up 0.3% from September, and were up 5.7% from October 2019, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.2% from September, and were up 4.4% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were virtually unchanged from the first 10 months of 2019.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for September were up 0.6% from August, while inventories were up 0.7%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.32, compared with 1.40 in September 2019.
- Total Industrial production increased 1.1% in October, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month. Total industrial production in October was 5.3% below its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization was 72.8 in October, 0.8 percentage point above September, but 4.2 percentage below October 2019 and 7.0 percentage points below its 1972-2019 average.
- In 2019, personal income increased in 2,964 counties, decreased in 139, and was unchanged in 10, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Personal income increased 4.0% in the metropolitan portion of the United States and increased 3.5% in the nonmetropolitan portion. In metropolitan counties, the percent change in personal income ranged from 12.1% in Doniphan County, Kansas to negative 5.8% in Stark County, Illinois. In nonmetropolitan counties, it ranged from 34.7% in Sheridan County, Kansas to negative 14.2 percent in Cavalier County, North Dakota.
- Housing starts in October were up 4.9% and from the previous month and were up 14.2% from October 2019. Building permits in October were unchanged from September and were up 2.8% from a year ago.
- Existing home sales increased 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million in October, from 6.57 million in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median existing home price in October was $313.0 thousand, up 15.5% from October 2019. Total housing inventory at the end of October decreased 2.7% from the previous month, and decreased 19.8% from a year ago, to 1.42 million. Unsold inventory was at a 2.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 2.7 months in September, and down from 3.9 months in October 2019.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates dropped, hitting a record low for the thirteenth time this year. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.72% for the week ending November 19, down from last week when it averaged 2.84%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.66%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.28%, down from last week when it averaged 2.34%. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.15%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 0.3% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 13, 2020.
- Import prices edged down 0.1% in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, following an increase of 0.2% the previous month. The October decline was driven by lower fuel prices which more than offset higher nonfuel prices. Exports prices increased 0.2% in October following a 0.6% advance in September. Import prices decreased 1.0% from October 2019 to October 2020, while export prices decreased 1.6%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 31 thousand to 742 thousand in the week ending November 14. The 4-week moving average was 742 thousand, a decrease of 13.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending November 7 was 6,372 thousand, a decrease of 429 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 7,054.5 thousand, a decrease of 525 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.3% for the week ending November 7, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
- Unemployment rates were lower in September in 30 states, higher in 8 states, and stable in 12 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All 50 states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier. The national unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point over the month to 7.9 percent but was 4.4 points higher than in September 2019. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 30 states, decreased in 3 states, and was essentially unchanged in 17 states and the District of Columbia in September 2020. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 48 states and the District and was essentially unchanged in 2 states.
- From June 2019 to June 2020, employment decreased in all the 357 largest U.S. counties, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In June 2020, national employment (as measured by the Quarterly County Employment and Wages) decreased to 135.1 million, a 9.4% decrease over the year. Atlantic, NJ, had the largest over-the-year decrease in employment with a loss of 34.2%. Employment in most of the country was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to contain it. Among the 357 largest counties, 352 had over-the-year increases in average weekly wages. In the second quarter of 2020, average weekly wages for the nation increased to $1,188, an 8.6% increase over the year. Atlantic, NJ, had the largest second quarter over-the-year wage gain at 22.5%. The increases in average weekly wages largely reflect substantial employment loss among lower-paid industries.
- Manufacturing sector multifactor productivity declined 1.6% in 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The multifactor productivity decline in 2019 reflected a 1.1% decrease in sectoral output and a 0.5% increase in combined inputs. Durable manufacturing sector multifactor productivity decreased 1.3% in 2019. The decline reflected a 0.6% decrease in sectoral output and a 0.7% increase in combined inputs. Nondurable manufacturing sector multifactor productivity decreased 1.8% in 2019. The decline reflected a 1.5% decrease in sectoral output and a 0.3% increase in combined inputs.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 77.0 in November, from 81.8 in October. The Index was 96.8 in November of 2019. The Current Conditions Index inched down from 85.9 in October to 85.8 in November, while The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 79.2 to 71.3.
- There were 57,564,083 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 1,372,182 deaths, and 36,875,075 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 11/21/2020, 1:30 EST). In the United States, there are 11,910,858 confirmed cases, 254,413 deaths, and 4,457,930 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
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Sunday, November 15th, 2020
- The producer price index for total final demand increased 0.3% in October, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.2%. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.5% from October 2019 to October 2020, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.8%.
- The consumer price index held steady in October, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The core also held steady, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.2% for the 12-month period ending in October, while the core index rose 1.6%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1% from September to October. This result stems from a 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the consumer price index.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 48 thousand to 709 thousand in the week ending November 7. The 4-week moving average was 755.25 thousand, a decrease of 33.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending October 31 was 6,786 thousand, a decrease of 436 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 7,575.75 thousand, a decrease of 653 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.6% for the week ending October 31, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate.
- The number of jobs openings was little changed at 6.4 million on the last business day of September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 4.7 million, respectively.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates rising. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.84% for the week ending November 12, up from last week when it averaged 2.78%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.75%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.34%, up from last week when it averaged 2.32%. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.20%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 0.5% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 6, 2020.
- There were 54,184,358 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 1,314,904 deaths, and 34,830,992 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 11/15/2020, 13:30 EST). In the United States, there are 10,945,381 confirmed cases, 245,812 deaths, and 4,148,444 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
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Friday, November 6th, 2020
- Total non-farm payroll employment increased 638 thousand in October, following an increase of 672 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 906 thousand, while government employment decreased by 268 thousand. In October, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Employment in government declined over the month, mainly in state and local government education. The unemployment rate decreased to 6.9% in October, from 7.9% in September. The unemployment rate was 3.6% in October 2019.
- The number of unemployed decreased by 1,519 thousand to 11.061 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 1,151 thousand to 3.556 million and accounted for 32.5% of the unemployed. Among the unemployed, the number of persons on temporary layoff decreased by 1.4 million in October to 3.2 million. This measure is down considerably from the high of 18.1 million in April but is 2.4 million higher than in February.
- The labor force participation rate increased to 61.7% in October, from 61.4% in September, while the employment-population ratio increased from 56.6% to 57.4%.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.8 hours.
- In October, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 4 cents to $29.50. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 4.5%, but with the warning from the Bureau of labor Statistics: “The large employment fluctuations over the past several months—especially in industries with lower-paid workers—complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings.”
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 7 thousand to 751 thousand in the week ending October 31. The 4-week moving average was 787 thousand, a decrease of 4 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending October 24 was 7,285 thousand, a decrease of 538 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 8,244.5 thousand, a decrease of 827.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.0% for the week ending October 24, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
- Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.9% in the third quarter of 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 43.5% and hours worked increased 36.8% (seasonally adjusted annual rates). Over the last four quarters (from the third quarter of 2019), nonfarm business productivity increased 4.1%. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector decreased at an annual rate of 8.9% in the third quarter of 2020, reflecting a 4.4% decrease in hourly compensation and a 4.9% increase in productivity. The third-quarter decline in unit labor costs was the largest decline since the first quarter of 2009, when the measure fell 13.4%. Unit labor costs increased 2.5% over the last four quarters.
- The international trade in goods and services deficit was $63.9 billion in September, down $3.2 billion from $67.0 billion in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. September exports were $176.4 billion, $4.4 billion more than August exports. September imports were $240.2 billion, $1.2 billion more than August imports. The September decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $3.1 billion to $80.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $16.8 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $38.5 billion, or 8.6%, from the same period in 2019. Exports decreased $329.0 billion or 17.4%. Imports decreased $290.4 billion or 12.4%.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates decreasing. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.78% for the week ending November 5, down from last week when it averaged 2.81%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.69%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.32%, unchanged from the previous week. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.13%.
- Mortgage applications increased 3.8% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 30, 2020.
- There were 48,996,342 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 1,237,773 deaths, and 32,330,456 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 11/6/2020, 13:00 EST). In the United States, there are 9,643,922 confirmed cases, 235,199 deaths, and 3,781,751 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
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