Key Economic Indicators – September 18, 2017

September 15th, 2017

·      Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for August were down 0.2% from the previous month, but were up 3.2% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.2% from August, and were up 3.6% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.8% from the first eight months of 2016.

·      Total manufacturing and trade sales for July increased 0.2% from June, the same increase as in the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Inventories increased 0.2%, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.38 in July, compared with 1.40 a year ago.

·      Total Industrial production decreased 0.9% in August, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Hurricane Harvey, which hit the Gulf Coast of Texas in late August, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by roughly 0.75 percentage point. Total industrial production in August was 1.5% above its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization decreased 0.8 percentage point to 76.1%, 3.8 percentage points below its 1972-2015 average.

·      The federal government budget ran a deficit of $107.7 billion in August, following a deficit of $42.9 billion in the previous month. The cumulative budget deficit for the first eleven months of fiscal year 2017 was $673.7, $54.6 billion more than the deficit for the same period of the previous fiscal year.

·      The producer price index for total final demand increased 0.2% in August, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month.  The index for final demand less foods, energy and trade increased 0.2%, after holding steady in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 2.4% from August 2016 to August 2017, while the index for final demand less foods, energy and trade increased 1.9%.

·      The consumer price index increased 0.4% in August, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.7% for the 12-month period ending in August, while the core index rose 1.7%.

·      Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.3% from July to August. This result stems from 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings, being more than offset by a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 284 thousand in the week ending September 9, a decrease of 14 thousand from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 263.25 thousand, an increase of 13 thousand from the previous week’s average.This is the highest level for this average since August 13, 2016 when it was 263.25 thousand.  Hurricanes Harvey and Irma impacted this week’s initial claims.

·      The number of jobs openings was little changed at 6.2 million on the last business day of July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of hires and separations were also little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates remaining largely unchanged from last week’s year-to-date low. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.78% for the week ending September 14, unchanged from the previous week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.50%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.08%, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 2.77%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 9.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 8th.

·      The September 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The headline general business conditions index was 24.4 in September, slightly lower than the August figure of 25.2, which was the highest in three years.

·      The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for September decreased to 95.3, from 96.8 in August. The Current Conditions Index increased to 113.9, the highest level since November of 2000. On the other hand, the Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 83.4, largely due to two hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

Key Economic Indicators – September 11, 2017

September 8th, 2017

·      New orders for manufactured goods decreased 3.3% in July, while shipments increased 0.3%. Excluding transportation, new orders were up 0.5% in July, and shipments were up 0.4%. Year-to-date manufacturers’ new orders were up 5.6%, while shipments were up 4.7%.

·      Sales of domestic cars decreased 3.8% in August, while total light vehicle sales decreased 4.0%. Total vehicle sales were 16.0 million units in August, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.1 million in August of 2016.

·      Sales of merchant wholesalers in July were down 0.1% from the previous month, but were up 5.9% from a year ago. Sales of durable goods decreased 0.1%, while non-durable goods sales decreased less than 0.1%. In July, inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.6% from the previous month, and were up 3.3% from July 2016.

·      In July, international trade deficit increased $0.1 billion to $43.5 billion. July exports were $194.4 billion, $0.6 billion less than June exports. July imports were $238.1 billion, $0.4 billion less than June imports. Year-to-date, the deficit was $319.1 billion, compared with a cumulative deficit of $291.2 billion during the first seven months of 2016.

·      Second quarter productivity increased 1.5% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 0.1% increase in the previous period. Hourly compensation rose 1.8%, while unit labor costs increased 0.2%. From the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.3%, reflecting increases in output and hours worked of 2.8% and 1.5%, respectively.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 62 thousand to 298 thousand in the week ending September 2nd. This is the highest level for initial claims since April 18, 2015. The 4-week moving average was 250.25 thousand, an increase of 13.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of September 7th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.78% for the week ending September 7th, down from last week when it averaged 3.82%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.44%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 3.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 1st.

·      In August, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity for the 92nd consecutive month. Fifteen non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August, while two industries reported contraction.

·      The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace across all regions in July and August.

Key Economic Indicators – September 4, 2017

September 1st, 2017

·      Total non-farm payroll employment rose 156 thousand in August, following an increase of 189 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 165 thousand in July, while government employment decreased by 9 thousand. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, food services and drinking places, professional and technical services, health care, and mining. The average monthly gain in employment was 176 thousand per month thus far this year.

·      The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in August, from 4.3% in July. The unemployment rate was 4.9% in August 2016.

·      The number of unemployed increased by 151 thousand to 7.132 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 45 thousand to 1.740 million and accounted for 24.7% of the unemployed.

·      The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.9% in August.

·      The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.4 hours in August, down from 34.5 hours in the previous month.

·      In August, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 3 cents to $26.39. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.5%.

·      Unemployment rates were lower in July than a year earlier in 340 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 39 areas, and unchanged in 9 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 336 metropolitan areas, decreased in 46 areas, and was unchanged in 6 areas.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased a thousand to 236 thousand in the week ending August 26. The 4-week moving average was 236.75 thousand, a decrease of 1.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 19 was 1,942 thousand, a decrease of 12 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,951.5 thousand, a decrease of 6.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “second” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 1.2%. In the advance estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 2.6% for the second quarter of 2017.

·      Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 3.0% in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.7% in the first quarter.

·      Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.9% in the second quarter of 2017, compared with an increase of 2.7% in the first quarter.

·      The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.0% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0% in the previous quarter.

·      The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8% in the second quarter of 2017, compared with an increase of 2.6% in the previous quarter.

·      The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3%, compared with an increase of 2.2% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9%, compared with an increase of 1.8%.

·      Corporate profits from current production increased $26.8 billion in the second quarter of 2017, after a decrease of $46.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $29.4 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $40.7 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $64.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $9.3 billion in the previous quarter. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $8.6 billion, compared with a decrease of $9.3 billion in the previous quarter.

·      Personal income increased 0.4% in July, and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, both the headline index and the core index, increased 0.1% in July.  Bothe the headline index and the core index were up 1.4% from July 2016.

·      Retail inventories for July were down 0.2% from the previous month, but were up 3.3% from July 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. 

·      Wholesale inventories for July were up 0.4% from the previous month, and were up 3.2% from July 2016. 

·      The international trade deficit in goods was $65.1 billion in July, up $1.1 billion from $64.0 billion in June, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Exports of goods for July were $127.1 billion, $1.6 billion less than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $192.2 billion, $0.5 billion less than June imports.

·      July construction spending was down 0.6% from the previous month, but was up 1.8% from a year ago. Residential construction increased 0.8%, while nonresidential construction decreased 1.7%. Total private construction decreased 0.4%, while total public construction decreased 1.4%.

·      The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 0.8% to a reading of 109.1 in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Index was down 1.3% from July 2016.

·      The S & P Corelogic Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index posted annual increases of 4.9% and 5.7% in June, for the 10-city and 20-city composite indices, respectively. The National Index, covering all nine U.S. Census divisions, increased 5.8% from a year ago.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates continuing to move lower. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.82% for the week ending August 31, down from last week when it averaged 3.86%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.46%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.12% for the week ending August 31, down from the previous week when it averaged 3.16%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.77%.

·      Mortgage applications decreased 2.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 25th.

·      The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in August, and the overall economy grew for the 99th consecutive month.

·      The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 97.6 in August, from 93.4 in July.  The Index was 89.8 a year ago.

·      The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had increased in July, improved further in August. The Index now stands at 122.9 (1985=100), up from 120.0 in July. The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0.

Key Economic Indicators – August 28, 2017

August 25th, 2017

·      New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 6.8% in July, while shipments increased 0.4%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5%.  Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.8%. Year-to-date, new orders were up 5.0%, and shipments were up 3.2% from the same period a year ago.

·      July existing home sales were down 1.3% from the previous month, but were up 2.1% from a year ago. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $258.3 thousand, 6.2% above July 2016.

·      July new home sales were down 9.4% from the previous month, and were down 8.9% from July 2016 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $313.7 thousand, 6.3% above July 2016.

·      U.S. House prices rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from May to June, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in June, U.S. prices rose 6.5%.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 24th showed average fixed mortgage rates dropping to its lowest mark since November 10, 2016. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.86% for the week ending August 24th, down from last week when it averaged 3.89%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.43%.

·      Mortgage applications decreased 0.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 18th.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 2 thousand to 234 thousand in the week ending August 19th. The 4-week moving average was 237.75 thousand, a decrease of 2.75 thousand from the previous week’s average.

Key Economic Indicators – August 21, 2017

August 18th, 2017

·      Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for July were up 0.6% from the previous month, and were up 4.2% from July 2016. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.9% from the same period a year ago.

·      Total manufacturing and trade sales for June were up 0.3%, while inventories were up 0.6%. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of June was 1.38, compared with 1.40 in June 2016.

·      Total Industrial production increased 0.2% in July, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in July was 2.2% above its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 76.7%, 3.2 percentage points below its 1972-2016 average, but 0.8 percentage point above its level in July 2016.

·      Housing starts in July were down 4.8% from the previous month, and were down 5.6% from a year ago. Building permits were down down 4.1% from the previous month, but were up 4.1% from July 2016.

·      The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index (HMI) increased 4 points to 68 in August. The Index was 67 in January, and 59 a year ago.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates little changed and remained at low levels. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.89% for the week ending August 17, down from last week when it averaged 3.90%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.43%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.16%, down from last week when it averaged 3.18%. A year ago at this time, 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.74%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 0.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 11th.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 232 thousand in the week ending August 12, a decrease of 12 thousand from the previous week’s level. The 4-week moving average was 240.5 thousand, a decrease of 0.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      The import price index increased 0.1% in July, while the export price index increased 0.4%. The import price index increased 1.5% from July 2016, while export prices increased 0.8%.

·      The August 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity grew strongly for New York manufacturers.

·      The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for August reported growth in manufacturing activity.

·      The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3% in July, following a 0.6%. The coincident index increased 0.3%, following a 0.1% in the previous month.

·      The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment climbed to its highest level since January. The Index was 97.6 in early August, up from 93.4 in July, and 89.8 in August 2016.

Key Economic Indicators – August 14, 2017

August 11th, 2017

·      Sales of merchant wholesalers in June were up 0.7% from the previous month, and were up 5.5% from June of 2016. Sales of durable goods were up less than 0.1%, while sales of nondurable goods were up 1.4%. Inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.7% from the previous month, and were up 2.8% from a year ago.  The June inventories/sales ratio was 1.29, compared with 1.32 a year ago.

·      June consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 3.9%. Revolving credit increased 4.9%, while non-revolving credit increased 3.5%.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.90% for the week ending August 10, down from last week when it averaged 3.93%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.45%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.18% for the week ending August 10, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.76%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 3.0% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 4th.

·      The producer price index for final demand (headline index) decreased 0.1% in July, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month.  The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade held steady, after an increase of 0.2% in June. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.9% for the 12 months ended in July. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade also increased 1.9% during the same period.

·      The consumer price index increased 0.1% in July, after holding steady in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index (headline index) increased 1.7% for the 12-month period ending in July, and the core index also rose 1.7%.

·      Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from June to July. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings being partially offset by a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 244 thousand in the week ending August 5. The 4-week moving average was 241 thousand, a decrease of a thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 29 was 1,951 thousand, a decrease of 16 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,965 thousand, an increase of 0.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.

 

 

Key Economic Indicators – August 7, 2017

August 6th, 2017

·      Total non-farm payroll employment rose 209 thousand in July, following an increase of 231 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 205 thousand in July, while government employment increased by 4 thousand. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services and health care. The average monthly gain in employment was 184 thousand per month thus far this year.

·      The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% in July, from 4.4% in June. The unemployment rate was 4.9% in July 2016.

·      The number of unemployed increased by 4 thousand to 6.981 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 127 thousand to 1.785 million and accounted for 25.9% of the unemployed.

·      The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage point to 62.9% in July, but has shown no clear trend over the past 12 months.

·      The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours.

·      In July, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 9 cents to $26.36. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.5%.

·      Unemployment rates were lower in June than a year earlier in 336 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 45 areas, and unchanged in 7 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 342 metropolitan areas, decreased in 39 areas, and was unchanged in 7 areas.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 5 thousand to 240 thousand in the week ending July 29. The 4-week moving average was 241.75 thousand, a decrease of 2.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 22 was 1,968 thousand, an increase of 3 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,964.75 thousand, an increase of 0.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.

·      New orders for manufactured goods increased 3.0% in June, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. Shipments decreased 0.2%, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. Year-to-date new orders were up 5.6%, and shipments were up 4.5%.

·      Sales of domestic cars increased 2.7% in July, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 0.6%. Total vehicle sales were 16.7 million units in July, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.3 million in January 2017, and 17.8 million in July of 2016.

·      June construction spending was down 1.3% from the previous month, but was up 1.6% from a year ago. Residential construction decreased 0.3% in June, while nonresidential construction decreased 2.0%. Total private construction decreased 0.1% in June, while total public construction decreased 5.4%.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates were mostly unchanged. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.93% for the week ending August 3, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.92%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.43%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.18% for the week ending August 3, down from the previous week when it averaged 3.30%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.74%.

·      The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in July, and the overall economy grew for the 98th consecutive month.

Key Economic Indicators – July 31, 2017

July 28th, 2017

·      Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2%.

·      Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.6% in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.7% in the first quarter.

·      The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6% in the previous quarter.

·      The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3%, compared with an increase of 2.2% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9%, compared with an increase of 1.8%.

·      Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 43 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP by state growth in the first quarter ranged from 3.9% in Texas to negative 4.0% in Nebraska.

·      New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 6.5% in June, while shipments held steady. Year-to-date, new orders were up 5.0%, while shipments were up 3.0%.

·      June existing home sales were down 1.8% from the previous month, but were up 0.7% from June 2016. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $263.8 thousand, 6.5% above June 2016.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 27th showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.92% for the week ending July 27th, down from last week when it averaged 3.96%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.48%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 0.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 21.

·      In the week ending July 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244 thousand, an increase of 10 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 244 thousand, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average.

Key Economic Indicators – July 24, 2017

July 21st, 2017

·      Housing starts rose 8.3% in June, while building permits increased 7.4%.

·      The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index (HMI) decreased 2 points to 64 in July. The Index was 67 in January, and 58 a year ago.

·      Mortgage applications increased 6.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 14th.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 233 thousand in the week ending July 15, a decrease of 15 thousand from the previous week’s level. The 4-week moving average was 243.75 thousand, a decrease of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      The import price index decreased 0.2% in June, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The export price index decreased 0.2%, following a 0.5% decrease in the previous month. The import price index increased 1.5% from June 2016, while export prices increased 0.6%.

·      The July 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity grew modestly for New York manufacturers.

·      The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for July reported growth at a slower pace in manufacturing activity.

·      The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.6% in June, while the coincident index increased 0.2%.

Key Economic Indicators – July 17, 2017

July 17th, 2017

·      Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for June were down 0.2% from the previous month, but were up 2.8% from June 2016. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.9% from the same period a year ago.

·      Total manufacturing and trade sales for May were down 0.2%, while inventories were up 0.3%. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of May was 1.38, compared with 1.41 in May 2016.

·      Sales of merchant wholesalers in May were down 0.5% from the previous month, but were up 6.2% from May of 2016. Sales of durable goods were down 0.1% in May, while sales of nondurable goods were down 0.9%. Inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.4% from the previous month, and were up 1.9% from May 2016.  The May inventories/sales ratio was 1.29, compared with 1.34 a year ago.

·      Total Industrial production increased 0.4% in June, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in June was 2.0% above its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 76.6%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2016 average, but 0.8 percentage point above its level in June 2016.

·      May consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 5.8%. Revolving credit increased 8.7%, while non-revolving credit increased 4.7%.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates increasing. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.03% for the week ending July 13, up from last week when it averaged 3.96%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.42%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.29% for the week ending July 13, up from last week when it averaged 3.22%. A year ago at this time, 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.72%.

·      Mortgage applications decreased 7.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 7th.

·      The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.1% in June, after holding steady in the previous month.  The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.2%, after a decrease of 0.1% in May. The producer price index for final demand increased 2.0% for the 12 months ended in June, and the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade also increased 2.0%.

·      The consumer price index held steady in June, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.6% for the 12-month period ending in June, while the core index rose 1.7%.

·      Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from May to June. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 3 thousand to 247 thousand in the week ending July 8. The 4-week moving average was 245.75 thousand, an increase of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 1 was 1,945 thousand, a decrease of 20 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,949.25 thousand, an increase of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.

·      Unemployment rates were lower in May in 9 states, higher in 3 states, and stable in 38 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Twenty-two states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 28 states and the District had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 9 states and the District of Columbia in May 2017, decreased in 4, and was essentially unchanged in 37 states. Over the year, 28 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 22 states and the District were essentially unchanged.

·      The number of job openings decreased to 5.7 million on the last business day of May. Over the month, hires increased to 5.5 million, and separations increased to 5.3 million.

·      The Federal Reserve Board’s “Beige Book” indicated that economic activity expanded across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts in June, with the pace of growth ranging from slight to moderate.