December 10th, 2016
- New orders for manufactured goods increased 2.7% in October, while shipments of manufactured goods increased 0.4%. Year-to-date, new orders were down 2.0% from the same period in 2015, while shipments were down 2.3%.
- Sales of merchant wholesalers in October increased 1.4%, while inventories decreased 0.4%. The October inventories/sales ratio was 1.30, compared with 1.33 in October 2014.
- In October international trade deficit was $42.6 billion, $6.4 billion more than the September figure. The cumulative deficit for the first 10 months of 2016 was $409.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $417.8 billion during the first 10 months of 2015.
- Third quarter productivity increased 3.1% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous quarter. From the third quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016, productivity rose 0.6%. Unit labor costs were up 0.7% from the previous quarter, and were up 3.0% from the same quarter a year ago.
- The labor market conditions index was 1.5 in November compared with 1.4 (revised) in October, according to the Federal reserve. The decline in the rate of unemployment was the major contributor to this improvement in the index, which is based on 19 components.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 10 thousand to 258 thousand in the week ending December 3. The 4-week moving average was 252.5 thousand, an increase of a thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of December 8th showed mortgage rates continued to climb and reached new highs for the year. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.13% for the week ending December 8, up from last week when it averaged 4.08%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.95%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 0.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending December 7.
- In November, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity for the 82nd consecutive month.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, surged in early December to 98, just slightly below the peak since 2004.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
December 4th, 2016
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter of 2016, after increasing 1.4% in the previous quarter, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the advance estimate, released about a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 2.9%.
- Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 5.2% in the third quarter, following a 0.7% increase in the previous quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 4.2% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1% in the second quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product increased 2.7%, following a 2.6% increase in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5% in the third quarter, compared to an increase of 2.1% in the previous quarter.
- Corporate profits from current production increased $133.8 billion in the third quarter, after a decrease of $12.5 billion in the previous quarter.
- Personal income increased 0.6% in October, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures, which increased 0.7% in September, increased 0.3% in October. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in October, while the core index increased 0.1%. The price index (headline index) was up 1.4% from October 2015, while the core index was up 1.7%.
- Sales of domestic cars increased 2.5% in November, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 0.9%. Total light vehicle sales were 18.1 million units in November, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 18.6 million in October of 2015.
- Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 178 thousand in November, following an increase of 142 thousand in the previous month. Private-sector payrolls increased 156 thousand in the month, while government employment increased 22 thousand.
- The unemployment rate declined to 4.6% in November, from 4.9% in October.
- The average workweek held steady at 34.4 hours. Average hourly earnings decreased by 3 cents to $25.89. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.5%.
- The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in November, while the overall economy grew for the 90th consecutive month.
- The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that economic activity continued to expand across most regions from early October through mid-November.
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in October, increased significantly in November to 107.1.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
November 27th, 2016
- Existing home sales increased 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million in October, from 5.49 million in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median existing home price in October was $232.2 thousand, up 6.0% from October 2015. This was the 56th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Total housing inventory at the end of October decreased 0.5% from the previous month, and 4.3% from a year ago, to 2.02 million. Unsold inventory was at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.4 months in September. Properties typically stayed on the market for 41 days in October, up from 39 days in September, but down from 57 days in October of 2015.
- Sales of new single-family houses were down 1.9% from the previous month, but were up 17.8% from October of 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $304.5 thousand, up 1.9% from a year ago. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 246 thousand. This represents a supply of 5.2 months at the current sales pace, compared with 5.0 in the previous month and 5.6 a year ago.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates rising. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.03% for the week ending November 23rd, up from last week when it averaged 3.94%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.95%.
- Mortgage applications increased 5.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 18th.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 251 thousand in the week ending November 9, an increase of 18 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 251 thousand, a decrease of 2 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 93.8 in November, from 87.2 in October. The Index was 91.3 in November of 2015.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
November 20th, 2016
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for October were up 0.8% from September, and were up 4.3% from October 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.8% from September, and were up 4.0% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 2.9% from the first 10 months of 2015.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for September were up 0.7% from August, while inventories were up 0.2%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.38, compared with 1.39 in September 2015.
- Total Industrial production, which decreased 0.2% in September held steady in October. Total industrial production in October was 0.9% below its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization decreased a percentage point to 75.3%, 4.7 percentage points below its 1972-2015 average.
- Housing starts in October were up 25.5% from the previous month, and were up 23.3% from October 2015. Building permits in October were up 0.3% from September, and were up 4.6% from a year ago.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates rising. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94% for the week ending November 17th, up from last week when it averaged 3.57%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.97%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 9.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 11th.
- The consumer price index increased 0.4% in October, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.6% for the 12-month period ending in October, while the core index rose 2.1%.
- The producer price index for total final demand was unchanged in October, while the index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.1%. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.8% from October 2015 to October 2016.
- The import price index increased 0.5% in October, while the export price index increased 0.2%. The import price index decreased 0.2% from October 2015 to October 2016, while the price index for exports decreased 1.1%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 254 thousand in the week ending November 5, a decrease of 11 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 259.75 thousand, an increase of 1.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.1% from September to October. This result stems from 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, being nearly offset by a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index.
- The November 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity stabilized for New York manufacturers. The headline index was 1.5 in November, up from negative 6.8 in October.
- The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey indicated that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in November.
- The Conference Board’s leading economic index increased 0.1% in October, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The coincident index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. Over the six-month span through October, the leading index increased 0.7% with six out of ten components advancing, while the coincident index increased 0.8% with all four components advancing.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
November 13th, 2016
- Sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $444.9 billion in September, up 0.2% from August, and up 0.4% from September 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Inventories were up 0.1% from the previous month, but were down 0.1% from September 2015. The September inventories/sales ratio was 1.33, same as in September 2015.
- Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.3% in September. Revolving credit increased 5.2%, while non-revolving credit increased 6.7%.
- The federal budget had a deficit of $44.2 billion in October, following a surplus of $33.4 billion in September. The deficit was $136.6 billion in October of 2016.
- The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last day of September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hired edged down to 5.1 million and total separations was little changed at 4.9 million.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 265 thousand in the week ending October 29, an increase of 7 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 257.75 thousand, an increase of 4.75 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates rising. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.57% for the week ending November 10th, up from last week when it averaged 3.54%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.98%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 1.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 4th.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 92.6 in early November.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
November 6th, 2016
- Personal income increased 0.3% in September, and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. Real disposable personal income held steady, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%.
- The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in September, while the core index increased 0.1%. The price index (headline index) was up 1.2% from September 2015, while the core index was up 1.7%.
- Total non-farm payroll employment rose 161 thousand in October, following an increase of 191 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The unemployment rate edged down to 4.9% in October, from 5.0% in September.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls held steady at 34.4 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by 10 cents to $25.92. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.8%.
- Third quarter productivity increased 3.1% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unit labor costs increased 0.3% in the third quarter, following a 3.9% increase in the previous quarter.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 265 thousand in the week ending October 29, an increase of 7 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 257.75 thousand, an increase of 4.75 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates rising. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.54% for the week ending November 3rd, up from last week when it averaged 3.47%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.87%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 1.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 4th.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
October 30th, 2016
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the third quarter of 2016, after increasing 1.4% in the previous quarter, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Real final sales of domestic product increased 2.3%, following a 2.6% increase in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6% in the third quarter, compared to an increase of 2.1% in the previous quarter.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 258 thousand in the week ending October 22, a decrease of 3 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 253 thousand, an increase of a thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates slipping from last week’s spike. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.47% for the week ending October 27th, down from last week when it averaged 3.52%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.76%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 4.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 21st.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 87.2 in October, from 91.2 in September.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
October 23rd, 2016
- Total Industrial production, which decreased 0.5% in August, increased 0.1% in September. Total industrial production in September was 1.0% below its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization increased 0.1 percentage point to 75.4%, 4.6 percentage points below its 1972-2015 average.
- Existing home sales increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million in September, from 5.30 million in August, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median existing home price in September was $234.2 thousand, up 5.6% from September 2015. This was the 55th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Total housing inventory at the end of September increased 1.5% from the previous month, but decreased 6.8% from a year ago, to 2.04 million. Unsold inventory was at a 4.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.6 months in August. Properties typically stayed on the market for 39 days in September, up from 36 days in August, but down from 49 days in September of 2015.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates moving higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.52% for the week ending October 20, up from last week when it averaged 3.47%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.79%.
- Mortgage applications increased 0.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 14th.
- The consumer price index increased 0.3% in September, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, following a 0.3% increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.5% for the 12-month period ending in September, while the core index rose 2.2%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 260 thousand in the week ending October 15, an increase of 13 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 251.75 thousand, an increase of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- The October 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity continued to decline for New York manufacturers. The headline index decreased to negative 6.8 in October, from negative 2.0 in September.
- The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey indicated that regional manufacturing activity continued to improve in October. The headline index was 9.7 in October, compared with 12.8 in September.
- Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest national economic activity continued to expand during the reporting period from late August to early October, according to the “Beige Book”.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
October 16th, 2016
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for September were up 0.6%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.5%.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales and inventories for August were both up 0.2%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.39 for the third month.
- The producer price index for total final demand, which was unchanged in August, increased 0.3% in September. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.3%, following an increase of 0.1% in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.7% from September 2015 to September 2016.
- The import price index increased 0.1% in September, while the export price index increased 0.3%. The import price index decreased 1.1% from September 2015 to September 2016, while the price index for exports decreased 1.5%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 246 thousand in the week ending October 8, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 249.25 thousand, a decrease of 3.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- Mortgage applications decreased 6.0% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 7th.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
October 9th, 2016
- Total non-farm payroll employment increased 156 thousand in September, following an increase of 167 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The unemployment rate edged up to 5.0% in September, from 4.9% in August.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 to 34.4 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by 6 cents to $25.79.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 249 thousand in the week ending October 1, a decrease of 5 thousand from the previous week’s level. The 4-week moving average was 253.5 thousand, a decrease of 2.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- New orders increased 0.2% in August, following a 1.4% increase in the previous month.
- The International trade deficit was $40.7 billion in August, compared with a deficit of $39.5 billion in the previous month.
- Construction spending for August was down 0.7% from the previous month, and was down 0.3% from a year ago.
- Mortgage applications increased 2.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 30th.
- The ISM manufacturing index increased to 51.5 in September, from 49.4 in August.
- The ISM non-manufacturing index increased to 57.1 in September, from 51.4 in August.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
