Current-Cast® Report

• Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.2% in the second quarter, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1%. In the advance estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 4.0%.
• The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9% in the second quarter, compared to an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter.
• Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.8% in the second quarter, following a decrease of 1.0% in the first quarter.
• Profits from current production increased $154.9 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $201.7 billion in the first quarter.
• Personal income increased 0.2%, in July, while personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.1%. Real disposable personal income increased 0.1% in July, while real personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.2%
• The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in July. The core index, excluding food and energy, was also up 0.1% from the previous month. The price index (headline index) was up 1.6% from July 2013, while the core index was up 1.5%
• New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 22.6% in July, while shipments increased 3.3%. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.8%, while shipments increased 1.4%. Year to date, new orders were up 8.2% from a year ago, while shipments were up 4.8%.
• July new home sales were down 2.4% from the previous month, but were up 12.3% from July 2013. The median sales price of new houses sold was $269.8 thousand, 2.9% above a year ago.
• The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, increased 3.3% to 105.9 in July, according to the National Association of Realtors.
• The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) purchase-only seasonally adjusted house price index rose 0.8% in the second quarter. This was the twelfth consecutive quarterly price increase. The index was up 5.2% from the second quarter of 2013.
• The S & P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Indices showed a sustained slowdown in price increases. The National Index posted an annual increase of 6.2% in the 12 months ending in June, while the 20-city Composite Index rose 8.1%.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 28th showed average fixed mortgage rates largely unchanged. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.10%, unchanged from the previous week.
• Mortgage applications increased 2.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 22nd.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased a thousand to 298 thousand in the week ending August 23. The 4-week moving average was 299.750 thousand, a decrease of 1.250 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
• The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had increased in July, improved further in August.
• The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was up in August.

• July existing home sales increased 2.4% to an annualized rate of 5,150 thousand units, according to the National Association of Realtors. July sales were down 4.3% from a year ago. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $222.9 thousand, 4.9% above July 2013.
• Housing starts surged 15.7% in July to an annualized pace of 1.093 million, while building permits rose 8.1% to an annualized rate of 1.052 million.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 21st showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing. 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.10% for the week ending August 21, down from last week when it averaged 4.12%.
• Mortgage applications increased 1.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 15th.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 14 thousand to 298 thousand in the week ending August 16. The 4-week average was 300.75 thousand, an increase of 4.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average of 296 thousand.
• The consumer price index (headline index) rose 0.1% in July, following a 0.3% in the previous month. The core index also rose 0.1% in July. The consumer price index increased 2.0% for the 12-month period ending in July, while the core index rose 1.9%.
• The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for August reported accelerated growth in manufacturing activity.
• The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.9% in July, while the coincident index increased 0.2%.

• Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for July were up less than 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 3.7% from July 2013. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.1% from the previous month.
• Total manufacturing and trade sales for June were up 0.3% from the previous month, while inventories were up 0.4%.
• Total Industrial production increased 0.4% in July. Total industrial production was up 5.0% from July 2013.
• The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 79.2%, compared with 77.5 in July 2013.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 14th showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing from the previous week. Averaging at 4.12% for the week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage once again is at its 2014 low.
• Mortgage applications decreased 2.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 8th.
• The federal government budget ran a deficit of $94.6 billion in July, after a surplus of $70.5 billion in the previous month.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 21 thousand to 311 thousand in the week ending August 9.
• The producer price index for total demand (headline index) increased 0.1% in July, while the core index, excluding food & energy, increased 0.2%. The producer price index increased 1.7% from July 2013.
• The import price index decreased 0.2% in July, while the export price index held steady. The import price index increased 0.8% from July 2013, while export prices increased 0.4%.
• The August 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that acceleration in business activity slowed for New York manufacturers. The index still remains strong at 14.7, compared with 25.6 in July.
• The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, decreased to 79.2 in early August.

• Sales of domestic cars decreased 2.0% in July, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 2.7%. Total vehicle sales were 16.4 million units in July, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 16.8 million in the previous month, and 15.7 million in July of 2013.
• New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.1% in June, while shipments increased 0.5%.
• Sales of merchant wholesalers in June were up 0.2% from the previous month, while inventories were up 0.3%.
• In June, international trade deficit was $41.5 billion, $3.2 billion less than the revised May figure. The cumulative trade deficit for the first half of 2014 was $260.1 billion, compared with a cumulative deficit of $242.7 billion during the first half of 2013.
• June consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 6.5%. Revolving credits increased at an annual rate of 1.3%, while non-revolving credits increased 8.4%.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 14 thousand to 289 thousand in the week ending August 2.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 7th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving slightly higher while remaining near their year’s lows.
• Mortgage applications increased 1.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 1st.
• In July, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity (exceeded 50.0%) for the 54th consecutive month.

• Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.0% in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1% in the previous quarter.
• The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9% in the second quarter, compared to an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter.
• Personal income and personal consumption expenditures both increased 0.4% in June.
• The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in June, while the core index, increased 0.1%. The price index (headline index) was up 1.6% from June 2013, while the core index was up 1.5%.
• Total non-farm payroll employment increased 209 thousand in July, following an increase of 298 thousand in the previous month.   Private-sector payrolls increased by 198 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 11 thousand.
• The number of unemployed persons increased 197 thousand to 9.671 million. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.2% in July, from 6.1% in June. The unemployment rate was 7.3% in July of 2013.
• The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by a cent to $24.45, while average weekly earnings increased by $0.35 to $843.43. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.0%, and average weekly earnings were up 2.3%.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 23 thousand to 302 thousand in the week ending July 26.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 31st showed average fixed mortgage rates little changed from the previous week.
• Mortgage applications decreased 2.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 25th.

• Durable goods orders rose 0.7% in June, following a 1.0% decrease in the previous month. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.8% in June.
• June existing home sales increased 2.6% to an annualized rate of 5,040 thousand units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $223.3 thousand, 4.3% above June 2013.
• U.S. House prices increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from April to May, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in May, U.S. prices rose 5.5%.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 24th showed average fixed mortgage rates largely flat for the week.
• Mortgage applications increased 2.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 18th.
• The consumer price index (headline index) rose 0.3% in July, while the core index increased 0.1%. The consumer price index increased 2.1% for the 12-month period ending in July, while the core index rose 1.9%.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 19 thousand to 284 thousand in the week ending July 19.
• The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3% in June, while the coincident index increased 0.2%.

• Advance estimates of retail and food services sales increased 0.2% in June, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month.
• Total manufacturing and trade sales for May were up 0.4%, while inventories were up 0.5%.
• Total Industrial production increased 0.2% in June. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 79.1%.
• Housing starts decreased 9.3% in June, while building permits decreased 4.2%. The total number of starts was 893 thousand in June, up 7.5% from a year ago.
• The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo increased 4 points to 53 in July.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 17th showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing slightly from the previous week.
• Mortgage applications decreased 3.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 11th.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 3 thousand to 302 thousand in the week ending July 12.
• The producer price index for final goods (headline index) increased 0.4% in June, while the core index increased 0.2%. The producer price index for final goods increased 1.9% from June 2013 to June 2014, while the core index increased 1.7%
• The import price index increased 0.1% in June, while the export price index decreased 0.4%. The import price index increased 1.2% from June 2013, while export prices increased 0.2%.
• The July 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity accelerated for New York manufacturers.
• The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for July reported growth in manufacturing activity.
• The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity continued to expand modestly across most regions and sectors.
• The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, decreased to 81.3 in early July.

• May consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 7.4%. Revolving credits increased at an annual rate of 2.5%, while non-revolving credits increased 9.3%.
• The federal government budget ran a surplus of $70.5 billion in June, after a deficit of $130.0 billion in the previous month.
• Wholesalers’ inventories rose 0.5% in May, while sales rose 0.7%.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 11 thousand to 304 thousand in the week ending July 5.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 10th showed average fixed mortgage rates little changed from the previous week.
• Mortgage applications increased 1.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 4^th.

• Total non-farm payroll employment increased 288 thousand in June, following an increase of 224 thousand in the previous month.   Private-sector payrolls increased by 262 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 26 thousand.
• The unemployment rate decreased to 6.1% in June, from 6.3% in May.
• The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls held steady at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2%.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 2 thousand to 315 thousand in the week ending June 28.
• Sales of domestic cars increased to 13.5 million in June, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased to 17.0 million.
• In May, international trade deficit was $44.4 billion, compared with a deficit of $47.0 billion in the previous month.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 3rd showed average fixed mortgage rates little changed from the previous week.
• Mortgage applications decreased 0.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 27th.

• Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014, after increasing 2.6% in the previous quarter. In the second estimate, released about a month ago, real GDP was estimated to have decreased 1.0%.
• The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3% in the first quarter, compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter.
• Corporate profits from current production decreased $198.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $47.1 billion in the first quarter.
• Personal income increased 0.4% in May, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%. Real disposable personal income increased 0.2% in May, while real personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.1%.
• The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in May. The price index (headline index) was up 1.8% from May 2013, while the core index was up 1.5%
• New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.0% in May.
• Existing home sale rose 4.9% in May to an annualized rate of 4.89 million. The median price rose 5.9% to $213.4 thousand.
• May new home sales increased 18.6% to an annualized rate of 504 thousand units. The median sales price of new houses sold was $282.0 thousand, 4.6% above May 2013.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of June 26th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower.
• Mortgage applications decreased 1.0% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 20th.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 2 thousand to 312 thousand in the week ending June 21.
• The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 85.2 in June, from 82.2 in May.
• The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 82.5 in June, from 81.2 in the previous month.