Current-Cast® Report

Key Economic Indicators – May 25, 2020

May 22nd, 2020

The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 249 thousand to 2,438 thousand in the week ending May 16. The 4-week moving average was 3,042 thousand, a decrease of 501 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending May 9 was 25,073 thousand, an increase of 5,525 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 22,002.25 thousand, an increase of 2,313.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 17.2% for the week ending May 9, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
Unemployment rates were higher in April in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Similarly, all 50 states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier. The national unemployment rate rose by 10.3 percentage points over the month to 14.7% and was 11.1 points higher than in April 2019. Nevada had the highest unemployment rate in April, 28.2%, followed by Michigan, 22.7%, and Hawaii, 22.3%. The rates in 43 states set new series highs, since the beginning in 1976. Connecticut had the lowest unemployment rate, 7.9%. followed by Minnesota (8.1%) and Nebraska (8.3%).
Nonfarm payroll employment decreased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in April 2020. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in all 50 states and the District. The largest job declines occurred in California (2.3447 million), New York (1.8273 million), and Texas (1.2989 million). The largest percentage declines occurred in Michigan (22.8%), Vermont (19.6%), and New York (18.8%). All 50 states and the District of Columbia had over-the-year decreases in nonfarm payroll employment in April. The largest job declines occurred in California (2.324 million), New York (1.9049), and Texas (1.1106). The largest percentage declines occurred in Michigan (23.0%), Vermont (21.5%), and New York (-19.4%).
From December 2018 to December 2019, employment increased in 285 of the 355 largest U.S. counties, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In December 2019, national employment (as measured by the Quarterly County Employment and Wages program) increased to 149.9 million, a 1.2% increase over the year. Cleveland, OK, had the largest over-the-year increase in employment with a gain of 5.8%. The U.S. average weekly wage increased 3.5% over the year, growing to $1,185 in the fourth quarter of 2019. Among the 355 largest counties, 341 had over-the-year increases in average weekly wages. Santa Cruz, CA, had the largest fourth quarter over-the-year wage gain at 20.7%.
Real state personal income grew on average 3.4% in 2018, after increasing 2.9% in 2017, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real state personal income is a state’s current-dollar personal income adjusted by the state’s regional price parity and the national personal consumption expenditures price index. The percent change in real state personal income ranged from 6.7% in Wyoming to 0.9% in Mississippi. Across metropolitan areas, the percent change ranged from 15.6% in Midland, Texas to negative 1.1% in Sebring-Avon Park, Florida.
Advance U.S. selected services total revenue for the first quarter of 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $4,011.4 billion, a decrease of 2.8% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and up 0.8% from the first quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The third quarter of 2019 to fourth quarter of 2019 growth was 1.0%.
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 891 thousand, 30.2% below the revised March figure and 29.7% below the April 2019 level, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 650 thousand, 25.4% below the revised March figure. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,074 thousand, 20.8% below the revised March rate and 19.2% below the April 2019 rate. Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 669 thousand, 24.3% below the revised March figure of 884 thousand.
April existing home sales decreased 17.8% to an annualized rate of 4,330 thousand units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The April figure was 17.2% below the April 2019 figure. There were 1,470 thousand homes for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 4.1 months at the current sales rate, compared to 4.2 in April of 2019. The median sales price of existing homes sold was $286.8 thousand, 7.4% above April 2019.
The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.24% for the week ending May 21, down from last week when it averaged 3.28%. A year-ago, the 30-year rate was 4.06%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.70%, down from last week when it averaged 2.72%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year rate averaged 3.51%.
Mortgage applications decreased 2.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending May 15th.
Manufacturing firms reported continued weakness in regional manufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for May. Despite remaining well below zero, the survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment rose this month after reaching long-term low readings in April. After reaching a 40-year low in April, the diffusion index for current general activity increased 13 points to negative 43.1, its third consecutive negative reading. The prices paid index increased 13 points to 3.2, and the prices received index increased 8 points to a reading of negative 3.1, its second consecutive negative reading.
The Philadelphia FEDlaunched a weekly business outlook survey on COVID-19. The survey (162 firms) for the week ending on May 17^th indicated that nearly 64% of all responding firms reported decreases of more than 5% in new orders or sales (unchanged from last week), while 7% reported increases of more than 5% (down slightly from the previous week). The impacts of various factors were negative for all firms, except for a very small net positive impact of reshoring of production. Among all firms, the three most frequently cited negative impacts came from mandated cutbacks or closure (51%), demand shock (45%), and cash flow or accounts receivables (38%). More than 61% of the firms reported shifting to telecommuting/work from home in response to COVID-19 impacts, 42% reported ceasing all hiring, and 31 percent reported furloughing employees.
The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) was negative 0.46 in the week ending May 15, down from negative 0.38. Risk indicators contributed negative 0.20, credit indicators contributed negative 0.17, and leverage indicators contributed negative 0.08 to the index in the latest week. The adjusted index (ANFCI), which isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on financial conditions relative to current economic conditions, ticked up in the latest week to 0.25 from a revised 0.23. Risk indicators contributed negative 0.30, credit indicators contributed negative 0.26, leverage indicators contributed negative 0.02, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed 0.83 to the index in the latest week.
The Federal Reserve Bank continues to take measures to alleviate the negative effects of the virus. On May 19^th, these measures were summarized by the FED Chairman Jerome H. Powell before the U.S. Senate’s Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs: “Available economic data for the current quarter show a sharp drop in output and an equally sharp rise in unemployment. By these measures and many others, the scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent and are significantly worse than any recession since World War II. Since the pandemic arrived in force just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs, reversing nearly 10 years of job gains. In March, we lowered our policy interest rate to near zero, and we expect to maintain interest rates at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals. In addition to monetary policy, we took forceful measures in four areas: open market operations to restore market functioning; actions to improve liquidity conditions in short-term funding markets; programs in coordination with the Treasury Department to facilitate more directly the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments; and measures to allow and encourage banks to use their substantial capital and liquidity levels built up over the past decade to support the economy during this difficult time.” On May 21^st, Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida re-iterated the Bank’s stance: “The Federal Reserve will continue to act forcefully, proactively, and aggressively as we deploy our toolkit—including our balance sheet, forward guidance, and lending facilities—to provide critical support to the economy during this challenging time and to do all we can to make sure that the recovery from this downturn, once it commences, is as robust as possible.”
As of May 22^nd, there are over 5.160 million COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 335.418 thousand deaths, and 1,985.656 thousand recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 5/22/2020, 1pm EST). In the United States, there are 1.588 million confirmed cases, 95.276 thousand deaths, and 298.418 thousand recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Key Economic Indicators – May 18, 2020

May 15th, 2020

Due to recent events surrounding COVID-19, many businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely. Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for April were down 16.4% from March but were down 21.6% from April 2019. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales were down 17.2% from the previous month, and were down 18.8% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were down 4.3% from the same period a year ago. Sales of clothing & clothing accessories stores were down 89.3% from a year ago, while electronics & appliance stores sales were down 64.8%. Furniture & home furnishing stores sales decreased 66.5% from April 2019, while food services & drinking places sales decreased 48.7%.
Total manufacturing and trade sales for March were down 5.2% from the previous month and were down 4.9% from a year ago. Total business inventories were down 0.2% from February and were down 0.3% from March 2019. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.45 in March, compared with 1.38 year ago.
Total Industrial production fell 11.2% in April, its largest drop in the 101-year history of the index, as the COVID-19 pandemic led many factories to slow or suspend operations. This drop in April followed a 4.5% decrease in March. The index was down 15.0% from April of 2019. Manufacturing output dropped 13.7%, its largest decline on record. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector dropped 8.3 percentage points in April to 64.9, a rate that is 14.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average.
The federal budget had a deficit of $737 billion in April, compared with a deficit of $119.0 billion in March 2020, and a surplus of $160.3 billion in April 2019, according to U.S. Department of the Treasury. Receipts were $241.9 billion, 54.8% below April 2019 level. Outlays were $979.7 billion, up 161.1% from April 2019. The cumulative deficit for the first half of the fiscal year 2020 was $1,482.3 billion, compared with a deficit of $530.9 billion during the first half of the previous fiscal year. The Treasury Department stated reasons for the large deficit very clearly: “Outlays for April totaled $980 billion, an increase of $604 billion over April 2019, largely due to the release of assistance related to the COVID-19 outbreak including: Economic Impact Payments to individuals and families ($217 billion); Coronavirus Relief Fund payments to state, territorial, local and tribal governments ($142 billion); increases in Medicare and other Department of Health and Human Services programs ($146 billion); and increases in unemployment benefits and other Department of Labor programs ($46 billion). Receipts were $294 billion lower than April 2019 as certain taxes from individuals and corporations were deferred until July, and other provisions in recent legislation impacted receipts.”
U.S. import prices decreased 2.6% in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, after decreasing 2.4% in March. Both monthly declines were led by falling fuel prices. The decrease in import prices in April was largest monthly drop since the index declined 3.2 percent in January 2015. Prices for U.S. exports decreased 3.3% in April after a 1.7% decrease in March. Import prices decreased 6.8% over the 12-month period ended in April, while export prices decreased 7.0%. The decrease in import prices was the largest 12-month drop since the index declined 8.3% from December 2014 to December 2015.
The producer price index for final demand (headline index) decreased 1.3% in April, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This decrease in April was the largest since the index began in December 2009. In April, over 80% of the decrease in the final demand index can be traced to a 3.3% drop in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved down 0.2%. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.9%, after a 0.2% decrease in March. This was the largest decline since the index was introduced in September 2013. The producer price index for final demand decreased 1.2% for the 12 months ended in April, the largest decline since falling 1.3% for the 12 months ended November 2015. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.3% for the 12-months ended in April, the first 12-month decrease.
The consumer price index (headline index) decreased 0.8% in April, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month. The index for all items less food and energy (the core) index decreased 0.4%, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. This is the largest monthly decline in the history of the series, which dates to 1957. A 20.6% decline in the gasoline index was the largest contributor to the monthly decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index, but the indexes for apparel, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, and lodging away from home all fell sharply as well. In contrast, food indexes rose in April, with the index for food at home posting its largest monthly increase since February 1974. The consumer price index increased 0.3% for the 12-month period ending in April, the smallest 12-month increase since October 2015. The core index rose 1.4% over the last 12 months, its smallest increase since April 2011.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 5.6% from March to April. This result stems from a 4.7% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.8% decrease in the consumer price index.
The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 195 thousand to 2,981 thousand in the week ending May 9. The 4-week moving average was 3,616.5 thousand, a decrease of 564 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending May 2 was 22,833 thousand, an increase of 456 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 19,760 thousand, an increase of 2,729.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
The number of total separations increased by 8.9 million to a series high of 14.5 million in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Within separations, the quits rate fell to 1.8% and the layoffs and discharges rate increased to 7.5%. Job openings decreased by 813 thousand to 6.2 million on the last business day of March. Job openings fell in total private (-774 thousand), with the largest declines in accommodation and food services (258 thousand) and durable goods manufacturing (82 thousand). The number of job openings decreased in the South, Midwest, and West regions. Over the month, hires declined to 5.2 million. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total non-farm sector, by industry, and by four geographic regions.
The unemployment rate for foreign-born persons in the United States was 3.1% in 2019, down from 3.5% in 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The jobless rate of native-born persons was 3.8% in 2019, down from 4.0% in 2018. In 2019, there were 28.4 million foreign-born persons in the U.S. labor force, comprising 17.4% of the total. Hispanics continued to account for nearly half of the foreign-born labor force in 2019, and Asians accounted for one-quarter. Foreign-born workers were more likely than native-born workers to be employed in service occupations; natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations; and production, transportation, and material moving occupations. Foreign-born workers were less likely than native-born workers to be employed in management, professional, and related occupations and in sales and office occupations. The median usual weekly earnings of foreign-born full-time wage and salary workers were $800 in 2019, compared with $941 for their native-born counterparts.
The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates generally hold steady. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.28% for the week ending May 14, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.26%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.07%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.72%, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.73%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.53%.
Mortgage applications increased 0.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending May 8th.
The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment inched upward in early May to 73.7, after plunging 17.3 points in April. The Index was 100.0 in May of last year. The Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 83.0 in May, from 74.3 in April. The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 67.7 in May, from 70.1 in April.
The Philadelphia FED launched a weekly business outlook survey on COVID-19. The survey (189 firms) for the week ending on May 10^th indicated that more than 64% of all responding firms reported decreases of more than 5% in new orders or sales (up from 60% last week), while 8% reported increases of more than 5% (unchanged from the previous week). More than 81% of the firms reported seeking a Small Business Administration (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan to address problems arising from the outbreak, and 23% sought out an SBA Economic Injury Disaster Loan. Of the 116 firms that reported seeking a PPP loan, nearly 90% reported having received a loan. Of the 102 firms that reported receiving a PPP loan, similar shares reported that receiving the PPP loan helped them pay bills and/or rent (68%) and prevented furloughs and/or layoffs (67%), and 31% indicated that it allowed for recalling furloughed and/or laid off workers. A larger share of manufacturers reported the loan prevented furloughs/layoffs relative to non-manufacturers, while a larger share of non-manufacturers reported that it allowed for recalling furloughed/laid off workers. More than 63% of the firms reported shifting to telecommuting/work from home in response to COVID-19 impacts, and 38% reported ceasing all hiring.
The May Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity continued to deteriorate significantly in New York State. The general business conditions index decreased 29.7 points to negative 48.5 in May, from negative 78.2 in April. The prices paid index decreased 1.7 points to 4.1, while the prices received index increased a point to negative 7.4.
The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC) Activity Index, a survey of business contacts located in the Seventh Federal Reserve District, decreased to negative 69 in April from negative 55 in March, suggesting that economic growth remained well below trend and slowed even further in April.
The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) was negative 0.40 in the week ending May 8, down from negative 0.30. Risk indicators contributed negative 0.17, credit indicators contributed negative 0.15, and leverage indicators contributed negative 0.08 to the index in the latest week. The adjusted index (ANFCI), which isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on financial conditions relative to current economic conditions, edged down in the latest week to 0.24 from a revised 0.26. Risk indicators contributed negative 0.26, credit indicators contributed negative 0.27, leverage indicators made a neutral contribution, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed 0.78 to the index in the latest week.
The Federal Reserve Bank continues to take measures to alleviate the negative effects of the virus. On May 13^th, the FED Chairman Jerome H. Powell states that among people who were working in February, almost 40 percent of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March. Chairman Powell inidcated that further stimulus is necessary and concluded his speech with the following paragraph: “At the Fed, we will continue to use our tools to their fullest until the crisis has passed, and the economic recovery is well under way. Recall that the Fed has lending powers, not spending powers. A loan from a Fed facility can provide a bridge across temporary interruptions to liquidity, and those loans will help many borrowers get through the current crisis. But the recovery may take some time to gather momentum, and the passage of time can turn liquidity problems into solvency problems. Additional fiscal support could be costly, but worth it if it helps avoid long-term economic damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. This trade-off is one for our elected representatives, who wield powers of taxation and spending.”
According to Federal Reserve Board’s Economic Well-Being of Households, 19% of all adults reported either losing a job or experiencing a reduction in work hours in March. 23% of adults said their income in March was lower than in February. Five percent said their income increased. More than 9 in 10 who lost a job or were told not to work expect to return to the same job, including 14% who were told the date to expect to return or who have already returned to work. “Education is a major determinant of where workers are physically able to do their jobs. Sixty-three percent of workers with a bachelor’s degree worked entirely from home in the last week of March. Sixty-seven percent of workers who never attended college and 60 percent who completed some college, or an associate degree worked entirely outside of their homes.”
As of May 15^th, there are over 4.477 million COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 303.389 thousand deaths, and 1,606.796 thousand recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 5/15/2020, 11:00 EST). In the United States, there are 1.420 million confirmed cases, 85.974 thousand deaths, and 246.414 thousand recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Key Economic Indicators – May 11, 2020

May 8th, 2020

The unemployment rate surged to 14.7% in April, highest rate since the inception of this series in January 1948, and non-farm payroll employment dropped at a record rate of 20.5 million, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Total non-farm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, following a decrease of 870 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls decreased by 19.52 million in the month, while government employment decreased by 980 thousand. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell sharply in all major industry sectors, with particularly heavy job losses in leisure and hospitality. The April over-the-month decline is the largest in the history of the series, from 1939, and brought employment to its lowest level since February 2011. Job losses in April were widespread, with the largest employment decline occurring in leisure and hospitality.
In April, employment in leisure and hospitality plummeted by 7.7 million, or 47 percent. Almost three quarters of the decrease occurred in food services and drinking places (5.5 million). Employment also fell in the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry (1.3 million) and in the accommodation industry (839 thousand). Employment declined by 2.5 million in education and health services in April. In health care, employment declined by 1.4 million, led by losses in offices of dentists (503 thousand), offices of physicians (243 thousand), and offices of other health care practitioners (205 thousand). Employment also declined in social assistance (651 thousand), reflecting job losses in child day care services (336 thousand) and individual and family services (241 thousand). Employment in private education declined by 457 thousand over the month.
Professional and business services shed 2.1 million jobs in April, while employment in retail trade declined by 2.1 million. In April, manufacturing employment dropped by 1.3 million. Employment in the other services industry declined by 1.3 million in April, with nearly two-thirds of the decline occurring in personal and laundry services (797 thousand). Construction employment fell by 975 thousand. Employment fell by 584 thousand in transportation and warehousing in April, while wholesale trade shed 363 thousand jobs. Employment fell by 262 thousand in financial activities, 254 thousand in information, and 46 thousand in mining.
The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by $1.34 cents to $30.01. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 7.9%. BLS noted: “The increase in average hourly earnings largely reflect the substantial job loss among lower-paid workers; this change, along with earnings increases, put upward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimates.”
The unemployment rate rose to 14.7% in April, from 4.4% in March. This is the highest rate and the largest over-the-month increase in the history of the series (seasonally adjusted data are available back to January 1948). The unemployment rate was 3.6% in April of 2019.
The number of unemployed persons increased by 15.938 million to 23.078 million. The number of unemployed persons who reported being on temporary layoff increased about ten-fold to 18.1 million in April. The number of permanent job losers increased by 544 thousand to 2.0 million. The number of persons who usually work full time declined by 15.0 million over the month, and the number who usually work part time declined by 7.4 million. Part-time workers accounted for one-third of the over-the-month employment decline.
In April, the number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 10.7 million to 14.3 million, accounting for almost two-thirds of the unemployed. The number of unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks rose by 5.2 million to 7.0 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 225 thousand to 939 thousand in April and accounted for 4.1% of the unemployed.
The labor force participation rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 60.2% in April, the lowest rate since January 1973 when it was 60.0%.
The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 677 thousand to 3,169 thousand in the week ending May 2. The 4-week moving average was 4,173.5 thousand, a decrease of 861.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending April 25 was 22,647 thousand, an increase of 4,636 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 17,097.75 thousand, an increase of 3,800.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
First quarter productivity decreased 2.5% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 1.2% increase in the final quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Unit labor costs increased 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020, reflecting a 2.2% increase in hourly compensation and a 2.5% decrease in productivity. From the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2020, productivity increased 0.3%, as output increased 0.1%, and hours worked decreased 0.2%. The 2.5% decline in non-farm business sector labor productivity in the first quarter of 2020 was the largest quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 2015, when output per hour decreased 2.9%. It reflects the largest decline in output since the first quarter of 2009 (6.5% decline) and the largest decline in hours worked since the third quarter of 2009 (4.4% decline). Productivity had increased in 15 of the 16 quarters between fourth-quarter 2015 and first-quarter 2020. BLS also stated: “BLS quarterly estimates of labor productivity combine output data with hours worked data based primarily on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. The reference period for the CES largely predated many of the COVID-19-related job losses that occurred in the latter part of March. To capture these job losses, adjustments were made to March employment, based on the Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration weekly reports of the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits. Hours and related measures—including labor productivity—for the first quarter of 2020 reflect these adjustments.”
New orders for manufactured goods in March, down four of the last five months, decreased 10.3% to $445.8 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. Shipments, down three consecutive months, decreased 5.2% to $473.6 billion. This followed a 0.3% February decrease. Unfilled orders, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased 2.0%. This followed a 0.1% February increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.57, down from 6.62 in February. Inventories decreased 0.8% to $693.5 billion, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.46, up from 1.40 in February. It was stated: “Due to recent events surrounding COVID-19, many businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely. The Census Bureau has monitored response and data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards.”
In March international trade in goods and services deficit was $44.4 billion, $4.6 billion more than the revised February figure, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). March exports were $187.7 billion, $20.0 billion less than February exports. March imports were $232.2 billion, $15.4 billion less than February imports. Year-to-date international trade in goods and services deficit was $129.7 billion, compared with a deficit of $157.8 billion during the first three months of 2019. Year-to-date exports were $603.8 billion, compared with $625.5 billion during the same period in 2019. Year-to-date imports were $733.5 compared with $783.2 billion during the first three months of the previous year. The BEA stated: “The declines in March exports and imports were, in part, due to the impact of COVID-19, as many businesses were operating at limited capacity or ceased operations completely, and the movement of travelers across borders was restricted. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the trade statistics for March because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have monitored data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards.”
Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.7% during the first quarter, according to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 10.3%, while non-revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.0%. In March, consumer credit decreased at annual rate of 3.4% to $4,209.3 billion. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 30.9% in March, while non-revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.2%.
Construction spending during March 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,360.5 billion, up 0.9% from February, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The March figure was 4.7% above a year ago. During the first three months of this year, construction spending amounted to $297.0 billion, 6.7% above the $278.5 billion for the same period in 2019. In March, private construction increased 0.7%, while public construction increased 1.6%. Private residential construction increased 2.3% in March, while private nonresidential construction decreased 1.3%. Public residential construction increased 0.7% in March, while public nonresidential construction decreased 1.6%. The Census Bureau stated: “Due to recent events surrounding COVID-19, many governments and businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely. The Census Bureau has monitored response and data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards.”
The home-ownership rate of 65.3% in the first quarter of 2020 was 1.1 percentage points higher than the rate in the first quarter 2019 (64.2%) but was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2019 (65.1%), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2020 were 6.6% for rental housing and 1.1% for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.6% was 0.4 percentage point lower than the rate in the first quarter 2019 (7.0%), but not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2019 (6.4%). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.1% was 0.3 percentage point lower than the rate in the first quarter 2019 (1.4%) and the rate in the fourth quarter 2019 (also 1.4%).The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates ticked up slightly. 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.26% for the week ending May 7, up from a week earlier when it averaged 3.23%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.10%. 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.73%, down from last week when it averaged 2.77%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.57%.
Mortgage applications increased 0.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending May 1, 2020.
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector contracted in April, and the overall economy contracted after 131st consecutive months of expansion. It was stated that “Comments from the panel were strongly negative (three negative comments for every one positive comment) regarding the near-term outlook, with sentiment clearly impacted by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and continuing energy market recession. The PMI^® indicates a level of manufacturing-sector contraction not seen since April 2009, with a strongly negative trajectory.”
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated that economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in April for the first time since December 2009, ending a 122-month period of growth. Two non-manufacturing industries reported growth, while sixteen industries reported contraction in April.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia suspended the release of the state leading indexes indefinitely. It was stated that: “Given the sudden, extreme impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on initial unemployment claims in recent weeks, our researchers’ standard approach for estimating the six-month change in coincident indexes is not appropriate.”
The Federal Reserve Bank continues to take measures to alleviate the negative effects of the virus.
As of May 8^th, there are over 3.872 million COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 270.118 thousand deaths, and 1,293.333 thousand recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 5/8/2020, 9:40 am EST). In the United States, there are 1.257 million confirmed cases, 75.670 thousand deaths, and 195.036 thousand recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Key Economic Indicators – May 4, 2020

April 30th, 2020

Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the “advance” estimate by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1%. BEA noted:” The decline in first quarter GDP was, in part, due to the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued “stay-at-home” orders in March. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.”
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6% in the first quarter of 2020, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.3%, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.8%, compared with an increase of 1.3%.
Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) decreased 4.3% in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.1% in the final quarter of 2019.
Current-dollar GDP decreased 3.5%, or $191.6 billion, in the first quarter, to an annualized level of $21.538 trillion.
Personal income decreased 2.0% in March, while personal consumption expenditures decreased 7.5%. Real disposable personal income decreased 1.7% in March, while real personal consumption expenditures decreased 7.3%. The personal saving rate – personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income – was 13.1% in March, compared with 8.0% in February, and 7.7% in January.
The Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index decreased 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the personal consumption expenditures price index (core index) decreased 0.1%. The headline price index (PCE) was up 1.3% from March 2019, while the core index was up 1.7%.
The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 603 thousand to 3,839 thousand in the week ending April 25. The 4-week moving average was 5,033.25 thousand, a decrease of 757 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending April 18 was 17,992 thousand, an increase of 2,174 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The 4-week moving average was 13,292.5 thousand, an increase of 3,733.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70% of compensation costs) increased 0.9% and benefit costs (which make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation) also increased 0.4% from December 2019. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.8% for the 12-month period ending in March 2020, the same increase for the 12-month period ending in March 2019. Wages and salaries increased 3.1% over the year and increased 2.9%, while benefit costs increased 2.1%.
Unemployment rates were higher in March than a year earlier in 253 of the 389 metropolitan areas, lower in 123 areas, and unchanged in 13 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A total of 45 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and 11 areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 21 metropolitan areas, decreased in 1 area, and was essentially unchanged in the remaining 367 areas.
From June 2019 to September 2019, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.3 million, a decrease of 264,000 jobs from the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.3 million, a decrease of 93,000 jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment gain of 11,000 jobs in the private sector during the third quarter of 2019.
In October 2019, 66.2 percent of 2019 high school graduates ages 16 to 24 were enrolled in colleges or universities, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among 20-year old to 29-year old students who received a bachelor’s degree in 2019, 76.0% were employed.
The international trade deficit was $64.2 billion in March, up $4.3 billion from $59.9 billion in February, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports of goods for March were $127.6 billion, $9.1 billion less than February exports. Imports of goods for March were $191.9 billion, $4.8 billion less than February imports.
Retail inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end of-month level of $666.8 billion, up 0.9% from February 2020, and were up 0.6% from March 2019.
Wholesale inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end of-month level of $650.0 billion, down 1.0% from February 2020, and were down 2.0% from March 2019.
The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that average mortgage rates reached all-time low. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.23% for the week ending April 30, down from last week when it averaged 3.33%. A year-ago this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.14%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.77%, down from last week when it averaged 2.86%. A year-ago this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.60%.
Mortgage applications decreased 3.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending April 24th.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated further in April, following a sharp decline in March. The Index now stands at 86.9 (1985=100), down from 118.8 in March. The Present Situation also declined significantly, from 166.7 to 76.4. However, the Expectations Index improved from 86.8 in March to 93.8 in April.
The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for April plunged 71.8, from 89.1 in March. The Index was 97.2 in April of last year. The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped to 74.3 in April, from 103.7 in March. The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 70.1 in April, from 79.7 in March.
The Federal Reserve Bank continues to take measures to alleviate the negative effects of the virus. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee also stated: “The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations.” The Federal Reserve Board also expanded the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program, to help credit flow to small and medium-sized businesses that were in sound financial condition before the pandemic.
As of April 30^th, there are over 3.248 million COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world and 230.615 thousand deaths (over 1,005.832 thousand recovered), according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 4/30/2020, 2:20 pm EST) . In the United States, there are 1.053 million confirmed cases, 61.547 thousand deaths, and 124.748 thousand recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Key Economic Indicators – April 27, 2020

April 24th, 2020

The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 810 thousand to 4,427 thousand in the week ending April 18. The 4-week moving average was 5,786.5 thousand, an increase of 280 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.0% for the week ending April 11, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous week’s unrevised rate. This marks the highest level of the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending April 11 was 15,976 thousand, an increase of 4,064 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The 4-week moving average was 9,598.25 thousand, an increase of 3,548 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
In 2019, 4.9% of families included an unemployed person, down from 5.2% in 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of the nation’s 82.6 million families, 81.1% had at least one employed member in 2019.
Sales of new single-family houses in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627 thousand, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 15.4% below the previous month and 9.5% below the March 2019 level. The median sales price of new houses sold in March was $321.4 thousand, 3.5% above a year ago. There were 333 thousand new houses for sale at the end of March. This represents a supply of 6.4 months at the current sales rate, compared with 5.8 months a year ago. The Census Bureau stated: “Due to recent events surrounding COVID‐19, many governments and businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely. The Census Bureau has monitored response and data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards.”
The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that average mortgage rates increasing slightly. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.33% for the week ending April 23, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.31%. A year-ago this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.20%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.86%, up from last week when it averaged 2.80%. A year-ago this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.64%.
Mortgage applications decreased 0.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending April 17th.
The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators decreased 6.7% in March, following a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month. Over the six-month span through March, the leading index decreased 6.6% (about an 12.8% annual rate). This was a sharp reversal from the growth over the previous six months. Furthermore, the deterioration was very broad based and have become very widespread. The Conference Board coincident economic index decreased 0.9% in March, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. Over the six-month span through March, the coincident index decreased 0.3% (about a 0.6% annual rate).

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Key Economic Indicators – April 20, 2020

April 17th, 2020

Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for March were down 8.7% from February and were down 6.2% from March 2019. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales in March were down 4.5% from the previous month and were down 1.7% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 1.7% from the same period a year ago.
Total manufacturing and trade sales for February were down 0.5% from January but were up 1.4% from February 2019. Total business inventories for February were down 0.4% from the previous month and were down 0.1% from a year ago.
Total Industrial production decreased 5.4% in March following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. The index was 5.5% below its March 2019 level.
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 4.3 percentage points in March to 72.7, a rate that is 7.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2019) average, and 5.7 percentage points below March 2019 level.
The import price index decreased 2.3% in March, following a 0.7% decrease in the previous month. The export price index decreased 1.6%, following a 1.1% decrease in the previous month. Import prices decreased 4.1% from March 2019 to March 2020, while export prices decreased 3.6%.
Housing starts in March were down 22.3% from the previous month but were up 1.4% from a year ago. Building permits were down 6.8% from the previous month but were up 5.0% from a year ago. Year-to-date, housing starts were up 22.3% from the same period a year ago, while building permits were up 12.1%.
The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates were near all-time lows. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.31% for the week ending April 16, down from last week when it averaged 3.33%. A year-ago this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.17%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.80%, up from last week when it averaged 2.77%. A year-ago this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.62%.
Mortgage applications increased 7.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending April 10th.
The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 1,370 thousand to 5,245 thousand in the week ending April 11. The 4-week moving average was 5,508.5 thousand, an increase of 1,240.75 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending April 4 was 11,976 thousand, an increase of 4,530 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The 4-week moving average was 6,066.25 thousand, an increase of 2,568.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 115.9 million full-time wage and salary workers were $957 in the first quarter of 2020 (not seasonally adjusted), according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was 5.7% higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 2.1% in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.
Unemployment rates were higher in March in 29 states and the District of Columbia, lower in 3 states, and stable in 18 states and, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Twenty-three states had jobless rate increases from a year earlier, 3 states had decreases, and 24 states and the District of Columbia had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 31 states in March 2020 and was essentially unchanged in 19 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 13 states, decreased in 2, and was essentially unchanged in 35 states and the District of Columbia.
The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Producers of food and medical products reported strong demand but faced both production delays, due to infection-prevention measures, and supply chain disruptions. Some other manufacturing industries, such as autos, mostly shut down. All Districts reported highly uncertain outlooks among business contacts, with most expecting conditions to worsen in the next several months. Employment declined steeply in almost all Districts. Employment cuts were most severe in the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors, where most Districts reported widespread mandatory closures and steep falloffs in demand. Districts reported either slowing price growth, flat prices, or modest to moderate declines in prices on balance.
The April Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity plunged in New York. The general business conditions index was negative 78.2 in April, compared with negative 21.5 in March. The prices paid index decreased 18.7 points, while the prices received index decreased 18.5 points.
The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for April reported continued weakening in manufacturing activity in the region. The indicator for general activity, decreased to negative 56.6 in April, from negative 12.7 in March. The prices paid index decreased to negative 9.3, while prices received index decreased to negative 10.6.
As of April 17^th, there are over 2 million COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world and 150 thousand deaths (over 550 thousand recovered), according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center. In the United States, there are 670 thousand confirmed cases, 33 thousand deaths, and 56 thousand recovered cases.

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Key Economic Indicators – April 13, 2020

April 10th, 2020

The Federal Reserve continues to take additional actions to provide loans to support the economy. This funding will assist households, employers of all sizes, and bolster the ability of state and local governments to deliver critical services during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 261 thousand to 6,606 thousand in the week ending April 4. The 4-week moving average was 4,265.5 thousand, an increase of 1,598.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending March 28 was 7,455 thousand, an increase of 4,396 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 6,635 thousand in May of 2009. The 4-week moving average was 3,500 thousand, an increase of 1,439 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million on the last business day of February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3% and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 1.2%.
Unemployment rates were lower in February than a year earlier in 277 of the 389 metropolitan areas, higher in 80 areas, and unchanged in 32 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In February, 34 metropolitan areas had year-over-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment, and 355 had essentially no change.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.8% from February to March. This result stems from a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.4% decrease in the consumer price index.
Retail trade, finance and insurance, and utilities were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. An increase in private services-producing industries was partly offset by a slight decrease in goods-producing industries; the government sector increased. Overall, 17 of 22 industry groups contributed to the 2.1% increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter. Real GDP increased 2.3% in the year 2019 (from the 2018 annual level to the 2019 annual level). The private goods- and services-producing sectors, as well as the government sector, contributed to the increase. Growth was widespread, with 20 of 22 industry groups contributing to the increase. Professional, scientific, and technical services; finance and insurance; and information were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2019.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the fourth quarter ranged from 3.4% in Washington and Utah to negative 0.1% in West Virginia. Real GDP increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the year 2019. The percent change in real GDP ranged from 4.4% in Texas to 0.6% in Nebraska.
February sales of merchant wholesalers were down 0.8% from the previous month but were up 1.1% from a year ago. Inventories for February were down 0.7% from the previous month and were down 1.3% from a year ago. The February inventories/sales ratio was 1.31, compared with 1.34 in February 2019.
The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.2% in March, following a decrease of 0.6% in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.2% in March, following a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.7% from March 2019 to March 2020, while the index excluding foods, energy, and trade increased 1.0%.
The consumer price index (headline index) decreased 0.4% in March, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The core, all items less food and energy, index decreased 0.1%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.5% for the 12-month period ending in March, while the core index increased 2.1%.
The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average mortgage rates were virtually unchanged. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.33% for the week ending April 9, unchanged from last week. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.12%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.77% for the week ending April 9, down from last week when it averaged 2.82%. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.60%.
Mortgage applications decreased 17.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending April 3rd.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for April plunged 18.1 points to 71.0. The Index was 97.2 in April of last year. The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped to 72.4 in April, from 103.7 in March. The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 70.0 in April, from 79.7 in March.

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Key Economic Indicators – April 6, 2020

April 3rd, 2020

Total non-farm payroll employment decreased 701 thousand in March, following an increase of 275 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls decreased by 713 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 12 thousand. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459 thousand, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.2 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by 11 cents to $28.62. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 3.1%.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in March, from 3.5% in February. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in March of 2019.
The number of unemployed persons increased by 1.353 million to 7.140 million. At 1.164 million, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed in March and accounted for 15.9% of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed was down by 141 thousand.
The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.7 percentage point to 62.7% in March.
The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance surged 3,341 thousand to 6,648 thousand in the week ending March 28. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The 4-week moving average was 2,612 thousand, an increase of 1,607.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending March 21 was 3,029 thousand, an increase of 1,245 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since July 6, 2013 when it was 3,079 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 2,053.5 thousand, an increase of 327.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since January 14, 2017 when it was 2,062 thousand.
In February international trade in goods and services deficit was $39.9 billion, $5.5 billion less than the revised January figure, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. February exports were $207.5 billion, $0.8 billion less than January exports. February imports were $257.5 billion, $6.3 billion less than January imports.
The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates dropping again. 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.33% for the week ending April 2, down from a week earlier when it averaged 3.50%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.08%. 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.82%, down from last week when it averaged 2.92%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.56%.
Mortgage applications increased 15.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending March 27th.
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector contracted in March, and the overall economy grew for the 131st consecutive month.
In March, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity for the 122nd consecutive month. Nine non-manufacturing industries reported growth, while seven industries reported contraction in March.

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Key Economic Indicators – March 30, 2020

March 27th, 2020

The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance skyrocketed to 3,283 thousand, from 282 thousand, in the week ending March 21. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 695 thousand in October of 1982. The 4-week moving average was 998.25 thousand, an increase of 765.75 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending March 14 was 1,803 thousand, an increase of 101 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since April 14, 2018 when it was 1,824 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 1,731 thousand, an increase of 27 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
The Labor Department stated “During the week ending March 21, the increase in initial claims are due to the impacts of the COVID-19 virus. Nearly every state providing comments cited the COVID-19 virus impacts. States continued to cite services industries broadly, particularly accommodation and food services. Additional industries heavily cited for the increases included the health care and social assistance, arts, entertainment and recreation, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing industries.”
Unemployment rates were lower in February in 8 states, higher in 1 state, and stable in 41 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Eleven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an increase, and 38 states and the District had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 4 states in February 2020 and was essentially unchanged in 46 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, nonfarm payroll increased in 21 states, decreased in 1 state, and was essentially unchanged in 28 states and the District of Columbia.
Private non-farm business sector multi-factor productivity increased 0.9% in 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This 2019 increase reflects a 2.7% increase in output and a 1.8% increase in the combined inputs of capital and labor. Capital services grew by 2.9% and labor input–which is the combined effect of hours worked and labor composition–grew by 1.1%. Multi-factor productivity was revised up to an increase of 0.9% in 2018. The 0.9% annual growth of multifactor productivity in the private nonfarm business sector in 2019 is 0.1 percentage point higher than the average annual rate of 0.8% over the 1987-2019 period. For the period 2007-2019, reflecting the most recent business cycle, multifactor productivity grew at an average annual rate of 0.5% as output grew 1.9% and combined inputs rose 1.5%. The average annual increase in combined inputs reflected a 2.3% increase in capital services along with a 0.9% increase in labor input
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, following a 2.1% increase in the previous quarter, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the “second” estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was also 2.1%.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2% in the third quarter.
The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.4% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7% in the third quarter
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4% in the fourth quarter, the same increase as in the third quarter.
Real GDP increased 2.3% in the year 2019, following an increase of 2.9% in 2018. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5% in 2019, compared with an increase of 2.4% in 2018.
Corporate profits from current production increased $53.0 billion in the fourth quarter, after a decrease of $4.7 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $0.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of $4.7 billion in the third quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $53.7 billion, compared with a decrease of $5.5 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $1.4 billion, compared with an increase of $5.5 billion. In the fourth quarter, receipts increased $3.4 billion, and payments increased $4.8 billion. For the year 2019, profits from current production were unchanged, in contrast to an increase of $68.7 billion in 2018.
Personal income increased 0.6%, in February, the same increase as in the previous month. Disposable personal income increased 0.5% and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in February. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in February, while the price index excluding food and energy increased 0.2%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.8% from February 2019. The index excluding food and energy also increased 1.8% from a year ago.
State personal income increased 3.0% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019, after increasing 2.8% in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 4.7% in Michigan to 1.1% in North Dakota. Earnings increased 3.6% nationally and was the leading contributor to growth in personal income in most states. State personal income grew on average 4.4% in the year 2019, after increasing 5.6% in 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth of state personal income ranged from 6.1% in Colorado to 2.8% in West Virginia.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased 1.2%, while shipments increased 0.8%. Year-to date, new orders were up 0.4% and shipments were down 1.1% from the same period a year ago.
Retail inventories for February were down 0.3% from the previous month and were down 0.6% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Wholesale inventories for February were down 0.5% from the previous month and were down 1.0% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The international trade deficit of goods was $59.9 billion in February, down $6.0 billion from January. Exports of goods were $136.5 billion in February, $0.7 billion more than January exports. Imports of goods were $196.4 billion, $5.3 billion less than January imports.
Sales of new single-family houses in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 765 thousand, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.4% below the figure for January but is 14.3% above the February 2019 level.
On March 24^th, Freddie Mac in coordination with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a nationwide relief plan for its Multifamily borrowers and residents of their apartment properties. Under the Freddie Mac program, multifamily landlords whose properties are financed with a Freddie Mac Multifamily fully performing loan can defer their loan payments for 90 days by showing hardship because of COVID-19 and by gaining lender approval. In turn, Freddie Mac is requiring landlords not to evict any tenant based solely on non-payment of rent during the forbearance period. The program can provide relief for up to 4.2 million renters across more than 27 thousand properties.
The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates dropped significantly. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.50% for the week ending March 26, down from last week when it averaged 3.65%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.06%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.92%, down from last week when it averaged 3.06%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.57%.
Mortgage applications decreased 29.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending March 20th.
The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March was 89.1, down from 101.0 in February. The index was 98.4 in March of 2019. The current economic conditions component was 103.7 in March, compared with 114.8 in February. The index of consumer expectations decreased to 79.7 in March, from 92.1 in February.

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Key Economic Indicators – March 23, 2020

March 20th, 2020

The coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to dominate the news all over the globe. Governments and central banks all over the world are scrambling to alleviate the negative effects of the virus on economies and citizens. The Federal Reserve Bank took a set of measures to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and increase liquidity in the US and other countries. The state and local governments are introducing measures and rulings to slow the spread of the virus. The federal government is in the process of introducing laws to reduce this unprecedented blow to millions of Americans. The virus seems to be here to stay for some time; and people are trying to adjust to a completely new lifestyle.
Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for February were down 0.5% from January but were up 4.3% from February 2019. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, sales were down 0.4% from the previous month, but were up 4.2% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail and food services sales were up 6.5% from the same period a year ago.
Total manufacturing and trade sales for January were up 0.6% from the previous month and were up 2.1% from January 2019. Total business inventories were down 0.1% from the previous month but were up 1.1% from a year ago. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.38, compared with 1.40 in January of 2019.
Total Industrial production increased 0.6% in February, after a decrease of 0.5% in the previous month. Total Industrial production was unchanged from February 2019. The capacity utilization rate was 77.0 in February, 2.8 percentage points below the average for the 1972-2019 period, and 1.5 percentage points below the February 2019 level.
The U.S. current account deficit decreased by $15.6 billion to $109.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The revised third quarter deficit was $125.4 billion. The fourth quarter deficit was 2.0% of current dollar gross domestic product (GDP), down from 2.3% in the third quarter. The $15.6 billion narrowing of the current account deficit in the fourth quarter mainly reflected a reduced deficit on goods that was partly offset by an expanded deficit on secondary income.
Housing starts decreased 1.5% in February. The February figure of 1,599 thousand, seasonally adjusted and annualized, was 39.2% above the February 2019 figure. Building permits decreased 5.5% in February. The February figure of 1,464 thousand, seasonally adjusted and annualized, was 13.8% above the February 2019 level.
The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates rising. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.65% for the week ending March 19, up from last week when it averaged 3.36%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.28%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.06%, up from last week when it averaged 2.77%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.71%.
Mortgage applications decreased 8.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending March 13th.
The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 70 thousand to 281 thousand in the week ending March 14. This is the highest level for initial claims since September 2, 2017 when it was 299 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 232.25 thousand, an increase of 16.5 thousand from the previous week’s average. This is the highest level for this average since January 27, 2018 when it was 234.5 thousand. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending March 7 was 1,701 thousand, an increase of 2 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,703.25 thousand, a decrease of 7 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
Unemployment rates were lower in January in 5 states and stable in 45 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Eleven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, one state had an increase, and 38 states and the District had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 12 states in January 2020 and was essentially unchanged in 38 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, 18 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 32 states, and the District of Columbia were essentially unchanged.
Unemployment rates were lower in January than a year earlier in 292 of the 389 metropolitan areas, higher in 77 areas, and unchanged in 20 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 31 metropolitan areas, decreased in one area, and was essentially unchanged in the remaining 357 areas.
The number of job openings was 6.983 million on the last business day of December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations little changed at 5.824 million and 5.614 million, respectively.
Private industry employers spent an average of $34.72 per hour worked for total employee compensation in December 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries averaged $24.36 per hour worked and accounted for 70.1% of these costs, while benefit costs averaged $10.37 and accounted for the remaining 29.9%.
The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.1% in February, after a 0.7% in the previous month. In the six-month period ending February 2020, the leading economic index increased 0.3% (about a 0.5% annual rate). The coincident index increased 0.3% in February, following a 0.1% increase in January. The coincident economic index rose 0.7% (about a 1.5% annual rate) for the six-month period ending February 2020.
The March (collected between March 2 and March 10) Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity declined. The general business conditions index was negative 21.5 in March, compared with 12.9 in February. The prices paid decreased from 25.0 in February to 24.5 in March. The prices received decreased from 16.7 in February to 10.1 in March.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for indicated a significant weakening in regional manufacturing activity in March. The diffusion index for current activity declined markedly from positive 36.7 in February to negative 12.7 in March, lowest level since July 2012. The prices paid decreased from 16.4 in February to 4.8 in March. The prices received decreased from 17.1 in February to 6.8 in March.

Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »

Current-Cast® Report

Key Economic Indicators – May 25, 2020

Key Economic Indicators – May 18, 2020

Key Economic Indicators – May 11, 2020

Key Economic Indicators – May 4, 2020

Key Economic Indicators – April 27, 2020

Key Economic Indicators – April 20, 2020

Key Economic Indicators – April 13, 2020

Key Economic Indicators – April 6, 2020

Key Economic Indicators – March 30, 2020

Key Economic Indicators – March 23, 2020

Archives

Categories

Blogroll

Static

Meta