Archive for November, 2019
Friday, November 22nd, 2019
- Housing starts in October were up 3.8% and from the previous month and were up 8.5% from October 2018. Building permits in October were up 5.0% from September and were up 14.1% from a year ago.
- Existing home sales increased 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in October, from 5.36 million in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median existing home price in October was $270.9 thousand, up 6.2% from October 2018. Total housing inventory at the end of October decreased 2.7% from the previous month, and decreased 4.3% from a year ago, to 1.77 million. Unsold inventory was at a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.1 months in September, and down from 4.3 months in October 2018.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.66% for the week ending November 21st, down from last week when it averaged 3.75%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.81%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.15% for the week ending November 21st, down from last week when it averaged 3.20%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.24%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 2.2% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 15, 2019.
- Unemployment rates were lower in October in 4 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 44 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Eight states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 3 states had increases, and 39 states and the District had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 4 states in October, decreased in 1, and was essentially unchanged in 45 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, 27 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 23 states and the District were essentially unchanged.
- From June 2018 to June 2019, employment increased in 279 of the 355 largest U.S. counties, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In June 2019, national employment (as measured by the Quarterly County Employment and Wages program) increased to 149.1 million, a 1.1% increase over the year. Adams, Colorado, had the largest over-the-year increase in employment with a gain of 5.3%. Among the 355 largest counties, 347 had over-the-year increases in average weekly wages. In the second quarter of 2019, average weekly wages for the nation increased to $1,095, a 3.8% increase over the year. Benton, Arizona, had the largest second quarter over-the-year wage gain at 16.3%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 227 thousand in the week ending November 16, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 221 thousand, an increase of 3.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending November 9 was 1,695 thousand, an increase of 3 thousand from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 1,693 thousand, an increase of 3 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The Conference Board’s leading economic index decreased 0.1% in October, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. The coincident index held steady, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Over the six-month span through October, the leading index decreased 0.1% (about a -0.2% annual rate) with six out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 55%), while the coincident index increased 0.8% (about a 1.5% annual rate) with three of four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75%). This was the first time since May 2016 that the leading economic index’s six-month growth has slipped into negative territory.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 96.8 in November, from 95.5 in October. The Index was 97.5 in November of 2018. The Current Conditions Index decreased from 113.2 in October to 111.6 in November, while The Index of Consumer Expectations increased from 84.2 to 87.3.
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Friday, November 15th, 2019
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for October were up 0.3% from September, and were up 3.1% from October 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.2% from September, and were up 2.8% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.4% from the first 10 months of 2018.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for September were down 0.2% from August, while inventories were up less than 0.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.40, compared with 1.36 in September 2018.
- Total Industrial production decreased 0.8% in October, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. Total industrial production in October was 1.1% below its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization decreased 0.8 percentage point to 76.7%, 3.1 percentage points below its 1972-2018 average.
- The import price index decreased 0.5% in October, while the export price index decreased 0.1%. The import price index decreased 3.0% from October 2018 to October 2019, while the price index for exports decreased 2.2%.
- The producer price index for total final demand increased 0.4% in October, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.1%. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.1% from October 2018 to October 2019, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 1.5%.
- The consumer price index increased 0.4% in October, after holding steady in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.8% for the 12-month period ending in October, while the core index rose 2.3%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2% from September to October. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 225 thousand in the week ending November 9, an increase of 14 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 217 thousand, an increase of 1.75 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- Personal income increased in 3,019 counties, decreased in 91, and was unchanged in 3 in 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Personal income increased 5.7% in the metropolitan portion of the United States and increased 4.8% in the nonmetropolitan portion in 2018. The change in personal income ranged from negative 3.2% in Lynn County, Texas to 17.5% in Midland County, Texas in 2018.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates picked up last week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.75% for the week ending November 14th, up from last week when it averaged 3.69%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.94%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.20% for the week ending November 14th, up from last week when it averaged 3.13%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.36%.
- Mortgage applications increased 9.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 8th.
- The November 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity was little changed in New York State. The headline index edged down 1.1 points to 2.9. The prices paid index decreased 2.6 points, while the prices received index decreased 0.1 point.
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Saturday, November 9th, 2019
- Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the second quarter ranged from 4.7% in Texas to 0.5% in Hawaii. Professional, scientific, and technical services; government; real estate and rental and leasing; and mining were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally. Mining increased 23.5% for the nation and was the leading contributor to the increases in Texas, Wyoming, Alaska, and New Mexico—the fastest growing states.
- New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.2% in September, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Shipments for manufactured durable goods decreased 0.2% in September, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. Year-to-date, new orders decreased 0.3%, while shipments increased 1.1%.
- Sales of merchant wholesalers for September were virtually unchanged from the previous month, and were down 0.6% a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Inventories decreased 0.4% in September, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.36 in September, compared with 1.29 a year ago.
- The goods and services deficit was $52.5 billion in September, down $2.6 billion from $55.0 billion in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. September exports were $206.0 billion, $1.8 billion less than August exports. September imports were $258.4 billion, $4.4 billion less than August imports. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit was $481.3 billion, up $24.8 billion from the same period in 2018.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 211 thousand in the week ending November 2, a decrease of 8 thousand from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 215.25 thousand, an increase of 0.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.3% in the third quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 2.1% and hours worked increased 2.4%. From the third quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019, productivity increased 1.4%, reflecting a 2.3% increase in output and a 0.9% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 3.6% in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting a 3.3% increase in compensation per hour and a 0.3% decline in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 3.1% over the last four quarters.
- The number of jobs openings edged down to 7.0 million on the last business day of September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 4.8 million, respectively.
- There were 2.8 million nonfatal workplace injuries and illnesses reported by private industry employers in 2018, unchanged from 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The incidence rate for total recordable cases in private industry also remained unchanged from a year ago. This is the first year since 2012 that the total recordable cases rate did not decline.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates moving lower. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.69% for the week ending November 7, down from last week when it averaged 3.78%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.94%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.13%, down from last week when it averaged 3.19%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 4.33%.
- Mortgage applications edged down 0.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 1st.
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Sunday, November 3rd, 2019
- Total non-farm payroll employment increased 128 thousand in October, following an increase of 180 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 131 thousand in October, while government employment decreased by 3 thousand. In October, notable job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, social assistance, and financial activities. Employment declined in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing due to strike activity. Job growth has averaged 167 thousand per month thus far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 223 thousand in 2018.
- The unemployment rate edged up to 3.6% in October, from 3.5% in September. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in October 2018.
- The number of unemployed increased by 86 thousand to 5.855 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 50 thousand to 1.264 million and accounted for 21.5% of the unemployed.
- The labor force participation rate edged up 0.1 percentage point to 63.3% in October.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls held steady at 34.4 hours.
- In October, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents to $28.18. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 3.0%.
- Personal income increased 0.3% in September according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income increased 0.3% and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%. Real disposable personal income increased 0.3% in September, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%. The personal consumption expenditures price index (headline index) and the core index both held steady in September. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.3% from September 2018, while the core index also increased 1.7%.
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in the third quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0%.
- Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.0% in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.0% in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2% in the previous quarter.
- The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.5%, compared with an increase of 2.4%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2%, compared with an increase of 1.9%.
- According to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 14 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 2.0% increase in real GDP in the second quarter. Professional, scientific, and technical services; real estate and rental and leasing; and mining were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the second quarter of 2019.
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